Casino & Gambling Information | Let us create a 3d Digital eBook for you! DigyCat.com |
Expected Value in Texas Holdem Poker
A successful Texas hold em player is one who maximizes his return or minimizes his loss with each decision he makes. Expected value (EV) is essentially the amount one would expect to win or lose if this decision were to be repeated millions of times. (rememer your precalculus "limit as n goes to infinity"??? didn't think so!) Every poker decision, whether it be to bet, raise, check/call, check/fold, check/raise has an expectation of success or failure. Those that will lose you money in the long run are said to have negative expected value (-EV). Folding always has an expected value of zero. You will never gain or lose money by folding. Folding, though it has an EV of zero, may often be your best decision from an EV perspective. Let's look at a few examples. Expected value is not always easily calculable, even in limit texas holdem, but every time you play you should try to analyze your decisionmaking with EV in your mind. For instance, you're playing 1/2 and in the small blind with 84o on a flop of K96 rainbow. The small blind checks and only you and a tight player are left. There is three dollars in the pot. Should you bet? You are risking one dollar. Betting has a positive expectation if you can expect the other two to fold more than one in four times. If you try it four times and it succeeds once, you win a three dollar pot and lose your one dollar bet the three other times, making it a 0 EV play. (We're discounting the chance that you are called and catch runner runner or win in some other very unlikely way) Remember, we analyze each decision on its own Expected Value merits. If you are called and catch an 8 on the turn, you must again analyze your decisions based on their likelihood of success or failure in the long run. Poker, and Texas Holdem in particular, is a game of short term variations, but you must continue to make the correct EV decisions and you will be a winner in the long term. Another example: You are holding A8 of spades, again playing 1/2. There are 3 limpers ahead of you and one behind you. The flop comes K96 with two spades. The first player bets and the other two in front of you call...you should raise! As we've seen in the Poker Odds section, you have about a 35 percent chance of hitting your flush. You will not win each time you hit it...perhaps someone has flopped a set or two pair and will hit a full house, etc. You may even occasionally win if you spike an Ace. Anyway, it is pretty clear that your odds of winning the hand are better than 25 percent, and with 3 players in the pot ahead of you, you want to get more money in the pot while you have an advantage from an expected value standpoint. Now, there are other factors that will enter your head and should be taken into account. If the original bettor reraises you and the other two fold, you've now put 2 dollars in and gotten the others to put 6 in. Now we may or may not be in positive EV territory, depending on what our opponent has. Also, we must consider the fact that our raise may have bought us a free card or may have gotten someone with an Ace and a better kicker or paired side card to fold. As you can see, there are many factors influencing the expected value of our decisions. We may not always be sure we've made the correct poker play, but it's extremely important that our thinking process runs along these lines. Even preflop you must think along expected value lines. You may be holding AJs in the small blind. Six players, most of them very loose, limp before you. A raise is in order. Think in terms of expected value or pot equity. Your hand figures to win more than one in every seven times against the starting hands held by the others, so a raise is in order. Again, evaluate each decision on its own merits. If you miss the flop in this instance, checking and folding may be your best option from an EV standpoint. Or, it may not...you may have an overcard, gutshot and back door flush draw...again, do the math in your head and arrive at the correct decision. Finally, remember this...in general, a bet has a higher EV than a check/call. You will sometimes win by forcing people to fold. Now, there are times when this is not correct due to the threat of a raise (if you're planning on calling), but always bear it in mind. In Texas Holdem, aggressive poker is winning poker. Greg Dwyer is a professional online poker player. His poker strategy websites can be found at http://www.HitTheFlop.com and http://www.pokercentral.us
MORE RESOURCES: |
RELATED ARTICLES
Gaming Winners Before you plan a trip to Las Vegas or Atlantic City or going on a cruise with legalized Gambling, certain things you must know of, and the most important one being How To Win. Gamble is all about taking a calculated risk, using your skills combined with a strategy and finally one thing that all of us want, Luck. The Truth Behind The Limits: What Minimum and Maximum Bets Are About Have you ever thought about the reason behind the existence of minimum and maximum bets? The truth is simple: casinos want your money. As simple as that. Think Big and Give Your Poker Profits a Boost Is your lack of confidence hurting your poker profits in your online poker play?In the good Texas Holdem poker rooms on the internet there are various levels of buy-ins for tournament play, generally starting from around $5 (plus site fee) per player. This is the level that most new players play at but has your game moved on while you've stood still? What I mean by that is - have you gained enough poker experience to leave the "newbies" behind and move up a couple of levels? If you have then I would seriously suggest that you start playing for higher stakes, you could be losing out on a lot of online poker profits if you don't. Online Poker Gambling Sees Tremendous Growth Online poker gambling at casinos and poker rooms is one of the fastest growing forms of wagering on the Internet. Fueled by the televised tournaments seen on Travel Channel's World Poker Tour, ESPN with the 2004 World Series of Poker (WSOP), and Bravo's Celebrity Poker, the popularity of the game is seen everywhere. Roulette: The Game of Remarkable Comebacks In casino gambling, sometimes even the most knowledgable players turn to blind luck to make it through their day. Of course, luck can never be relied on; either things will go the right way for you or they won't. A Guide to Common Soccer Betting Terms Accumulator.Sometimes called a parlay. Our Gambling Vacation To Louisiana Before I begin to describe how we prepared for and then went on our first gambling vacation, there are few details you need to know.We are not wealthy!We do not have rich parents to call for money! In fact we don't have anyone we can call for money!If we screw-up, we are on our own!When we started discussing a weekend at the casino, it really scared us to think we could spend more than a hundred dollars at a casino. Las Vegas - World Series of Poker (WSOP) Who Will Be The Top Dog at WSOP?That is the question on everyone's mind as the 2005 World Series of Poker enters its third round with only 272 top poker players remaining.Of the over 5600 entrants who entered the esteemed Las Vegas held tournament at a buy-in of $10 000 each, most walked away with nothing as only the last 560 players qualify for cash prizes. Compulsive Gambler's Journey To Day One Stop Gambling Its day one and this was the most exciting day in Justin's life. He made the choice to stop gambling. Why Play Texas Hold em? Ah, yes-the Texas hold 'em explosion. Seven years ago, when I first started playing, the Texas hold 'em community was comprised almost entirely of the collection of retirees who haunted the local 1-4-8-8 games, a sprinkling of mild mannered pros who played for a living, and a healthy percentage of truly degenerate gamblers who would now and then stagger into the card room after a blistering run at the craps table. Tips To Ponder Before Buying A Poker Table Poker tables come in al shapes, sizes and prices.Folding poker tables are reasonable priced and can easily be stored away or brought with you to the cottage or a friend's houseRacetrack poker tables are probably the most popular tables on the market. Types of Online Roulette Roulette - American and EuropeanAs many casino-savvy players already know, there are two main forms of online roulette. I plan on covering some of the differences between the two versions of this popular casino game and in doing so, helping you, the player, decide which game suits you best. Blackjack - Increase Your Odds With Basic Strategy Plus Blackjack Basic Strategy, played perfectly in a game with favorable rules, will reduce the edge against you to about one half of one percent, the best odds of any game in the casino.But still - it's a negative edge. Slots And The Basics Of The Game Whether your new to the slots or a seasoned player you'll find this information to be valuable. We'll even throw in a quick peek at slots in action at one of the best and most popular casinos on the net. A Teenagers Vegas Vacation This, a true story about a Vegas vacation involving casino gambling and.. How To Extend Your Stay & Play At A Casino How To Extend Your Stay & Play At A Casino If you decided to build a new home, would you start construction without first developing a plan or blueprint? Or would you begin a new business without having a business plan? Would you go to war without knowing your enemy and having a predetermined plan for victory? Well why do you go to the casino without a plan for winning? Winning is what it is all about. I have never lost money at a casino and felt good about it and if you are honest, neither have you. Hitting the Jackpot with Progressive Slot Machines Going For the Million plus PaybackProgressive slot machines offer jackpots that are larger than flat top machines. In some cases, these jackpots are huge and the payback can change a player's life. The MIT Blackjack Team Story The MIT Blackjack Team Story What's the first thing that enters your mind when you think of MIT, the world-renowned Massachusetts Institute of Technology: engineering genius, mathematical wizard, visionary, geek, hacker? If you chose any one of those, you would be correct. Mix them all together, add some smoke and mirrors, big-time anonymous investors, a dash of anarchy for good measure, and you get one of the best scams of all times-the MIT Blackjack Team-the ultimate in high stakes, genius-backed hacking! Infamy is nothing new to MIT. Mobile Gaming Leads the Way The state of online gambling may have just found another highly viable ally. The new world offered up by the mobile gaming industry can be highly rewarding for online casino operators and software providers, as the opportunity to play online, is increased by the popularity of hand-held devices such as PDAs, mobile handsets and palmtops. The Adventure for Poker Gold From the drama TILT made by ESPN to the deal Chris Moneymaker signed with Death Row Records to create Moneymaker Gaming, business continues to create strange bedfellows. Everyone seems to be trying to find the pot of gold at the end of the poker rainbow. |
TSC2000.biz Domain Is For Sale - $15,000 For Enquiries eMail Us © www.TSC2000.biz 2012 |